Guwahati, Assam, February 15 (HBTV): According to recent climate projections, Assam is expected to experience significant changes by 2040 under the medium-emission SSP 2-4.5 scenario. Santonu Goswami, professor at the Azim Premji University in Bengaluru, explained this on Friday at the Guwahati Press Club. 

While these changes are moderate compared to higher-emission pathways, they pose substantial challenges to the state's economy, ecosystems, and public health.

Professor Santonu Goswami shared insights at the press meet. He emphasized that climate data projections are now openly available to the public for the first time in India, allowing people to download the data for any district in the country. He highlighted the alarming rise in temperature and wet bulb temperatures in Assam, with several districts, including Majuli and Chirang, facing significant discomfort due to rising heat levels.    

Goswami expressed hope that this data would become a valuable resource for state departments, particularly in disaster management, and encourage more informed planning and action in response to climate change.

These projections underline the urgency for proactive measures to address climate-related challenges and safeguard Assam's future.

Temperature changes

All the districts in Assam are projected to see an increase in mean annual maximum temperature. Tinsukia, Dhemaji, and Dibrugarh are expected to face the highest temperature rise, with increases of 0.83°C, 0.76°C, and 0.74°C, respectively. These districts will also experience higher summer maximum temperatures, with increases of 0.52°C, 0.44°C, and 0.44°C.

Warmer winters

Winters in Assam will also become notably warmer. South Salmara-Mankachar, Jorhat, and Chirang are predicted to see winter maximum temperature increases of 1.6°C, 1.46°C, and 1.4°C, respectively. Such warming could disrupt agricultural cycles, affect biodiversity, and alter energy demands for heating and cooling.

Increased heat risk

Several districts are projected to experience high wet bulb temperatures, which measure heat and humidity levels. Jorhat and Majuli are expected to see levels exceeding 31°C, presenting significant health risks, especially during heat waves. Nagaon is expected to see a 1.95°C rise in annual wet bulb temperatures, increasing heat-related health challenges in the region.

Shifting rainfall patterns

Assam's rainfall patterns will also undergo changes, leading to both extended dry spells and heavier rainfall events.

Dry periods: South Salmara-Mankachar could experience up to 13.7 consecutive dry days during the Southwest monsoon, while the Northeast monsoon may see up to 68.12 days of extended dry spells.

Heavy rainfall: South Salmara-Mankachar could experience 46.88 days of very heavy rainfall during the Southwest monsoon, whereas Hojai may see an 11.08% reduction in such days during the Northeast monsoon.

Impact on agriculture and water availability

These shifting patterns are likely to worsen water shortages, affecting both irrigation and drinking water supplies. The changing rainfall will also impact the timing and productivity of agricultural cycles, posing challenges to Assam's agrarian economy.